By Dragana Avramov, Miroslava Maskova
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Additional info for Active Ageing in Europe Volume 1 (Population Studies) (Vol 41)
External factors that substantially affected the courses of fertility and mortality in Europe or its parts, and thus the ageing of their population in the past fifty years, include in particular both world wars (war losses, lower natality levels especially during World War I). The increase of fertility after the World War II – the baby boom – caused a temporary increase in the proportion of children in the population and thus a slow-down of ageing in many of European countries in the 1950s. 2).
Past demographic history built in the current age structure and expected increasing longevity will be the two major determinants of these changes. 5 presenting years of birth of the cohorts that will form the older age groups at defined time points in the future helps to explain the expected trends in numbers and growth rates of the older population. The generations of special interest will be those born within post war elevation of fertility – baby boomers - because they start to move to older ages.
In seven of them the proportion of elderly is expected to go beyond 20% in 2015. At the same time only three countries are likely to remain below the level of 10%. The important changes are expected to occur in the period 2015-2030. Whereas in 2015 no country is projected to have more than 25% of elderly in its population, by 2030 there should be ten countries where the proportions of elderly are likely to reach one quarter or more. In one country the elderly population might represent even 30% of the total.
Active Ageing in Europe Volume 1 (Population Studies) (Vol 41) by Dragana Avramov, Miroslava Maskova