Economic Conditions

Get A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom PDF

By Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman

ISBN-10: 0521875498

ISBN-13: 9780521875493

Over the past thirty years there was vast use of continuing time econometric equipment in macroeconomic modelling. This monograph offers the 1st non-stop time macroeconometric version of the uk incorporating stochastic developments. Its improvement represents a big leap forward in non-stop time macroeconomic modelling. The e-book describes the hot version intimately and, like prior versions, it really is designed in this sort of means as to allow a rigorous mathematical research of its steady-state and balance homes, hence offering a priceless payment at the means of the version to generate believable long-run behaviour. The version is anticipated utilizing newly built special Gaussian estimation equipment for non-stop time econometric types incorporating unobservable stochastic traits. The e-book additionally comprises dialogue of the applying of the version to dynamic research and forecasting.

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Additional info for A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends

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NT ] is a vector whose elements can be evaluated recursively from Mε = η. The Gaussian estimates ˆ µ, [θ, ˆ yˆ ] of [θ, µ, y] are then obtained from the iterative procedure proposed by Bergstrom [1985, 1986]. It was shown in a Monte Carlo study in Nowman [1993] using a secondorder version of an extended trade cycle model based on the model of Phillips [1954] (see also Bergstrom [1967, Ch. 3] and Phillips [1972]) that the Gaussian estimation method performed well in finite samples. 11) + ζ2 (dt) d[DY(t)] = {−γ3 DY(t) + γ4 [DK(t) + C(t) + G(t) − Y(t)]} dt + ζ3 (dt), where Y(t) is real net national income or output at time t, C(t) is real private consumption, K(t) is the amount of fixed 17 Continuous Time Econometric Model of UK with Stochastic Trends capital, G(t) is real government consumption, M(t) is real money supply and γ1 , γ2 , γ3 , γ4 , γ5 , γ6 , β1 , β2 and β3 are the parameters of the model.

Xn (t)} is a n-dimensional continuous time random process, A(θ) is an n × n matrix whose elements are functions of a vector θ = [θ1 , . . , θ p ] of unknown structural parameters ( p ≤ n(n + 1)) and b(θ) is a vector that is a function of θ . The error term ζ(dt) is assumed to be a vector of white noise innovations (see Bergstrom 9 Continuous Time Econometric Model of UK with Stochastic Trends [1984a] for a precise definition and interpretation of this system). We assume the continuous time model generates equispaced discrete data observed as the sequence {x(0), x(1), .

T − 1, T ]. We let the 14 Introduction to Continuous Time Modelling elements of x(t), z(t), y1 and y2 be ordered (without loss of generality) so that x s(t) x(t) = x f (t) y1 = y1s f y1 , z(t) = , y2 = z s(t) z f (t) y2s f y2 , , where x s(t) is a vector of endogenous stock variables, x f (t) is a vector of endogenous flow variables, z s(t) is a vector of exogenous stock variables, z f(t) is a vector of exogenous flow variables. We then define the observable vectors x¯ t and z¯ t (t = 1, . .

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A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends by Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman


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